Political Betting

Political Betting is the fastest segment of the gaming industry, fueled by elections in The United States and around the world.  During the elections of 2016, for example online gaming houses lit up with wagers for and against not only Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, but not only can you participate in wagers on who will win upcoming elections, you can also bet real money on whether a political figure will perform a certain action.

Here’s my top 3 recommended Political Betting Websites

The oddsmakers are also already listing wagers for the 2020 Presidential race.  As of the publishing of this post, for instance, the odds of Donald Trump winning a 2nd term are +250 (2.5 to 1), whereas entertainer Kanye West is listed as +15,000.  That’s right, if you’re under the impression that Kim Kardashian’s husband will be President in 2021, and bet $100, you’ll pull in $15,000 if West wins.  Of course the latter example is absurd, and that’s why the odds are where they are, but if you look at potential candidates like Julian Castro (+3300), John Kasich (+6600), Cory Booker (+2000) or even Hillary Clinton (+2800), there are more rational ways to win betting on potential Presidential candidates.

For instance, at BetOnline.ag, one of our favorite political betting websites, you can bet on whether President Trump will have his official @realDonaldTrump Twitter Account removed from the social media site in 2017. As of this writing, the odds were +500 (5 to 1) that Twitter would remove Donald Trump’s official Twitter handle.  That means that the bookmakers don’t think he’ll be removed from his favorite form of communication. I happen to agree with the oddsmakers on this one, but if you disagree and you’re right, you could have a nice win to pad your wallet.

What’s great about wagering on political outcomes is the fact that people who pay attention and see trends before most can get into these bets early when the odds are strong, and just wait for that action to happen.  Betting on Politics is a lot more than just whether you’ll win the bet; it’s also about when you place it.

If you wager early, you may get much better odds.

Lets look at Ohio Governor John Kasich’s odds to win The Presidency in 2020.  Right now, he’s sitting at +6600 right now.  Of course, if the current President runs in 2020, there will be a G.O.P. primary challenger, and more likely than not, it will be someone like John Kasich, a Republican that’s already won Ohio twice (and was a Representative there before) and he’s been pretty consistent on his criticism of candidate and now President Trump.  He’s taken a  tough stand on Charlottesville, VA, and he was the runner up for the G.O.P. nod in 2016.  He also accepted Obamacare’s medicare expansion, and has a much softer tone that may be what the electorate is looking for in 3 years.  I’m not endorsing (I made pretty much the counter argument for Terry McAuliffe here), but know that these odds are what the bookmakers think right now.

Kasich’s odds will likely be no where near where they are right now in a year, much less 3.  Confirm your bet now, bet $1,000 on a Kasich presidency and you’re right, you’ll win $66,000  Wait until he wins the Republican nomination in the summer of ’20, and the odds go down to +250, you’ll still win $2,500.  That isn’t a bat return, but considering your timing made a 63,500 difference, timing your bet when you think the odds are right is a large part of the equation when you’re considering political betting

Political Betting is like Horse Racing….If a Race lasted 2-3 Years

Since you can find political wagering in the sportsbook section of most online gaming houses, I thought I’d offer my opinion on what I think the closest comparison between political betting and sports wagering.  To me, at least the technical aspects of the wagering process, of wagering on politics is more like Horse Racing than any other sport.

In Horse Racing, there’s a large number of competitors, each with their own reputation and statistics.  The smart Horse better knows which horse is the fastest, statistically, for the expected weather, track type and condition.  They use data to narrow the field, and then make a decision on where to place their wager.  What they can never account for is the unknown variable.  A horse can have an minor injury that’s unknown to the media and even trainers that slows the horse a fraction of a second.  Maybe the horse that’s usually quickest out of the gate had a bad start and can’t get that lead-time back.  It’s never a sure thing, but if all the things I mentioned before happen and and another horse wins with higher odds, another better used the same data and came to a different conclusion.

Politics is the same.  There may be 20 horses in the Presidential Race by the end of 2019.  As the race  moves forward into 2020, leaders will emerge, and some candidates fall out of contention.  One candidate faces another in the final stretch, and though the odds may be less volatile, things can happen, a sudden burst of support from an unlikely event or a candidate may trip.  There’s never a sure-thing in politics, just like horse racing. Conservative talk show host Erick Erickson even calls his pre-election analysis as a horse race.

How To Wager Real Money

First, join a betting website that features Sportsbooks.  I recommend BetOnline.ag, Inertops.eu or Bovada, but there are many more out.  I know the ones I mention are legitimate gaming houses, so if you use another one, just do your research

Deposit some money – the sites I recommend accept both credit cards and bitcoin for U.S. players.  If you’re unfamiliar with the most popular cryptocurrency, my friends over at Best Bitcoin Exchange explain that “A bitcoin exchange is a place where you buy, sell or trade bitcoin. You can buy and sell bitcoin with normal money like $USD or Euro’s. Or you can trade it for other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Ripple, Dash and hundreds upon hundreds more. (source). ”

Once you’ve made your deposit, find a card you want to bet on and place your wager.  Watch history unfold, and if you’re bets were winning ones, collect your bounty.

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