One of the more popular open bets on Political Betting portals like Bovada is the question of whether General John Kelly will be President Trump’s Chief Of Staff come January 1st, and analising their odds, the people who make the odds seem to think he will. As an example, if you bet $100 at Bovada saying that he will be the Chief Of Staff on January 1, 2018, you’ll only win $58 (as of the publishing of this blog), but if you bet he won’t, your $100 wager will payoff with $140. That’s not quite 2 to 1, but it is a pretty good return on your wager if you’re right.
General Kelly is a career Marine, and one that started in 1970 as an enlisted soldier and retired as the commander of U.S. Southern Command. He is known to be a organized, energized leader that’s not afraid to share his opinion and ruffle some feathers if required. He’s also the highest ranking military officer to have a child die in Afghanistan or Iraq. He’s a straight up military man, the kind of old school General that demands respects and won’t accept anything but success.
Will President Trump Be Able To Work With Chief Of Staff Kelly?
Trump, when he was younger, was sent to New York Military Academy to learn some discipline, and he speaks finely of his time at the school. One thing you may have noticed is that he always seems to give a lot of deference to Generals, except for the time he said that he knew more than them. He’s surrounded himself with several Generals inside his cabinet, and he obviously has a fondness for John Kelly.
Kelly, after all, was Trump’s Homeland Security Director before he was Chief Of Staff, and got rave reviews from The President. Kelly wanted the wall between U.S. and Mexico built in 2 years, and has been the kind of tough on illegal immigrants director that Trump liked. In fact, it was his tenure at the Homeland Security Department that led to him being chosen as Chief Of Staff after Reince Priebus resigned.
A large part of Trump’s formal education came at the New York Military Academy, and I know that it has left an effect on the man, even decades later. Sure he talks about Wharten School Of Finance a lot, but that was secondary education, once his brain had formed to lead the way to the person is today. In College, he was there to learn from books, not learn about life, as was the case at Military school.
I personally think that President Trump wouldn’t fire Kelly unless the General did something so egregious that the public (or more importantly the Commander-In-Chief) could not ignore. I really don’t think that’s going to happen.
Does that mean that Kelly will still be Chief Of Staff on January 1st, 2018? The odds aren’t calculated to determine if Kelly will be fired before the end of the year, but rather, if he’ll still be in the job. That leaves one other option
Can General John Kelly Work With Donald Trump?
I’m betting that if John Kelly isn’t in his current position come January 1, it will be most likely be because Kelly made the decision to leave, not Trump. Kelly doesn’t strike me as the kind of guy that puts up with a lot of hanky panky. Now, only he knows whether or not he believes Trump is making good decisions for the Country. Obviously at this stage, he does. After what Kelly’s already seen as Chief Of Staff, I’d venture to wager he thinks Trump is the man for the job of President, and The President needs a man like Kelly to help keep the White House running like a fine tuned machine, a colloquialism Trump himself says he invented.
My opinion is that Kelly will NOT be White House Chief Of Staff on January 1st, 2018. I think he’ll leave, citing family issues, or a need to spend time in true retirement. Whether or not that’s the real reason will be anyone’s bet.